USD Slumps, Awaits FOMC

by Korman Tam

The dollar sold off sharply at the start of the week, plunging from 1.3349 to 1.3702 against the euro – its lowest level in two months and falling just shy of the 1.54-handle versus the sterling. US economic data released earlier in the session were largely in line with consensus estimates. The December NY Fed manufacturing survey was slightly better than expected at -25.76 from -25.43 a month earlier. Industrial production posted a 0.6% decline in November, compared with a 1.3% increase a month earlier and capacity utilization was unchanged at 75.4%. Meanwhile, the NAHB housing market index for December held steady at 9.

The FOMC kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting and will announce the results on Tuesday at 2:15 PM. We look for the Fed to cut its benchmark lending by 75-basis points to 0.25%. The key highlight will be the accompanying Fed policy statement, in which it is likely to acknowledge the current recessionary landscape. Moreover, markets will look for guidance on whether interest rates may be lowered to zero. The greenback could benefit if the Fed signals a reluctance to ease its benchmark lending rate to zero.