Saturday, December 13, 2008

USD Plunges on Data

by Korman Tam

The dollar plunged in Thursday trading, falling to its lowest level in nearly 2-months against the euro at 1.3405 and yen at 91.15. Prompting the steep sell-off in the greenback was a set of dismal US economic reports – which included weekly jobless claims and the trade balance figure. The weekly jobless claims report unexpectedly surged to its highest level in 26-years at 573k, worst than the 525k forecasted and sharply higher from the previous week at 509k. Meanwhile, the October trade deficit ballooned to $57.19 billion versus calls for an improvement to $53.5 billion from $56.47 billion in September.

Safe haven flows jumped into spot gold, pushing it to a two-month high at $833 per barrel. Meanwhile, US equities struggled across the board with the Dow Jones slumping by 2.24%, the Nasdaq sliding 3.68% and the S&P 500 losing 2.85%.

The US economic calendar on Friday will be closely scrutinized with traders looking at November retail sales, PPI and the December University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. The headline November retail sales is expected to improve to -1.9% from -2.8% from October, while the excluding autos figure is seen improving to -1.7% from -2.2% a month earlier. The November PPI is expected to decline by 2.0%, compared with a 2.8% decline a month earlier. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index is seen drifting slightly lower in December to 55.0 from 55.3 a month earlier.

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